This year, refined oil exports are likely to fall below last year's levels.

Jinlianchuang has learned that in October, the four major state-owned oil companies planned to export approximately 3.19 million tons of gasoline and diesel, representing a 9% year-on-year increase but a 3% decline from the previous month. By product, gasoline exports are scheduled at 1.428 million tons, down 18% compared to the same period last year, while remaining roughly unchanged from the prior month. Meanwhile, diesel exports are planned at 1.76 million tons, up 48% year-on-year but down 6% compared to the previous month.  
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs for August, total exports of gasoline and diesel reached 2.31 million tons, representing a 38% increase from July's year-to-date low of 1.67 million tons. Meanwhile, export plans for both September and October are set to exceed 3 million tons each, signaling that China's gasoline and diesel exports have already bottomed out during June and July—and are now steadily recovering from their recent downturn.  
Jinlianchuang analysts note that export conditions have remained relatively strong since August. As the second half of the year begins, state-owned oil companies are facing significant pressure from high diesel inventories, making it crucial to balance domestic resource supplies. Meanwhile, spot prices for gasoline in Singapore have risen, turning export operations from losses into profitability—driving these companies to ramp up their export activities aggressively.  
However, overall, resistance to improvement remains significant. Earlier, JLC learned that there were additional plans for diesel exports in August—but these did not materialize in practice, indicating that export outflows continue to face substantial pressure.

Inventory is an important indicator of market supply and demand conditions. In September, Singapore's inventories of both light and medium distillates rose, surpassing the levels seen during the peak of the pandemic.  
Additionally, market sources indicate that some major refineries plan to further reduce their operating rates in the fourth quarter as a way to internally manage the mounting pressure from high inventory levels.  
According to the published export plans for August, September, and October, gasoline exports from January to October are expected to total around 13 million tons, remaining roughly flat compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, diesel exports for the same period are projected at about 16.6 million tons, representing a 5.6% decline from the previous year. Additionally, aviation fuel exports have been hit hardest by the ongoing pandemic. It is reported that aviation fuel exports from January to October may fall short of 9.5 million tons, marking a steep drop of nearly 50% compared to the same period last year.  
Overall, from January to October, the total exports of gasoline, diesel, and coal remained around 39 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of nearly 30% compared to last year. As a result, 2020's refined oil export volume is expected to fall significantly below last year's level.